Russell will win, here's how

[Immune]

E11

John gets voted off.

Having switched his vote, the old Galu can no longer trust John. Furthermore, as the minority, the Galu do not matter anyway. John’s only option is to go to work on the FF4+Shambo. As one of the smarter players in the game, and due to his desperation, John will pose a real threat to undermine Russell’s sway over the group. As he has in the past, Russell will immediately target the player who creates the most dissension. The FF4+Shambo will go along with this because they do not care about the order; it is in their best interest to take their alliance to the final five.

E12 & 13

Dave and Brett get voted off.

The FF4+Shambo will hold strong because all of them will feel good about it – none will think they will be the first one voted off at five. Natalie and Shambo both think they have a final two deal with Russell and Russell will give neither one of them any reason to doubt it. Mick and Jaison will see them selves as the favorites for immunity (as an athletically gifted doctor and law student respectively, they would be favored in any physical or mental challenge). Both will be willing to take the cake-walk to the final 5 and then take their chances on immunity. Furthermore, they will believe that the FF4 will hold strong and Shambo will be the one voted off.

E14

Monica gets voted off.

Monica will be saved for last because the FF4+Shambo need the last Galu member to lose the immunity challenge. As the worst challenge player, Russell will make sure that she is the last to go. She will lose and go home.

E15

Whoever loses immunity between Mick/Jaison will go home.

Russell will solidify his final two deal with both Natalie and Shambo. They will unite to swing the vote. Natalie and Shambo will both go along with this because Russell will emphasize the danger of taking Mick and Jaison into the final challenge and because they will realize that they have a better chance of winning the final vote against Russell than against Mick or Jaison.

E16

Episode 16 is where things get interesting

Scenario 1:

Mick/Jaison loses and gets voted off.

Applying the same logic as before, if Mick/Jaison loses he will be the one voted off. No one will want to take them into the final challenge or the final vote.

Scenario 2:

Mick/Jaison wins immunity and targets Russell, Natalie gets voted off

If Mick/Jaison wins, he will be in the driver’s seat and target Russell as the next most dangerous threat in the final immunity challenge. Natalie and Shambo will go along with this because it keeps the target off of their own backs. Russell will play his HII and his vote for Natalie will be the only one that counts.

E17

Scenario 1:

Natalie gets voted off

Russell wins immunity and takes Natalie out because he will win against Shambo. Or, Shambo wins and takes Russell because she has a better chance against him than Natalie.

Vote: Kelly, Laura, Dave, and Monica vote for Russell because they blame Shambo (rightfully so) for sinking Galu and ending their chance at winning. If they have any doubt, Russell’s final plea (“Please support a lifelong fireman whose family lost everything in Katrina”) sways them to vote for the lesser of two evils. Erik and Mick are gamers and vote for the player who they think played the best game – Russell. John, Natalie, and Jaison vote for Shambo because Russell betrayed them. Brett’s vote could go either way but it does not matter. Russell wins 7-3 or 6-4.

Scenario 2a:

Mick/Jaison gets voted off

Mick/Jaison loses immunity and gets voted off. Russel goes against Shambo and the game ends with the same result as Scenario 1.

Scenario 2b:

Mick/Jaison/Natalie win immunity and win the game

If Mick,Jaison, or Natalie win final immunity it does not matter who they take with them into the final vote (between Russell and Shambo), they will win against either Russell or Shambo.

Winner: Russell is the heavy favorite, no matter what it will be a FF

[Farran1977]

I like the scenario, but Russell is going to win with all the votes. Everyone is going to respect that he's the best player ever. No one is going to hold a grudge. Look at Erikk, they didn't like each other but he's cheering Russell on now. Russell is going to look at the Jury, tell them all that they are moron's and they are still going to vote for him, thats how awesome he is!

[RussellHantzForever]

I like your scenario, I hope your right.