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01-11-2008, 09:17 AM
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 Very,very early boot list This is from several forums kinda put together ( Fire,Phoenix,Skills,Fever,Sucks,Blows ) First out: Johnny Fairplay--He manages to piss his team off in the first 3 days ( what a shock ) and when the favorites lose the first challange he knows he's gone. So he decides to go with a bang--big show-quits. Rumor is he wasn't even the target- Parvati was--makes this even funnier. Second out Mary--it seems she has no idea how to play--not a big shock, remember Leaslie was a big fan of the show, applied 11 straight seasons then got there and was lost. Difference in being a big fan and knowing how to play. She makes "friends but no alliances and it costs her. Out pre merge Tracy and Yau seen on a flight to Guam with Jeff Probst pre merge ( others not ID for sure ) Erik and Paravati out--Rumor only Kathy goes nuts, removed by Survivor--believed to be pre merge Post merge James and Amanda--rumored to make jury but no farther Joel Elixa Jason Ami Natalie-makes it to family visit Alexis-Wins family challange-takes Natalie Jury but not known where Jonathon Cirie Ozzy Chet
__________________ "If first you don't succeed, destroy all evidence that you tried" Last edited by pawpaw; 01-16-2008 at 01:44 PM.     |
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01-21-2008, 10:08 PM
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| Paravati and James form an alliance Amanda and Ozzy form an alliance Jason and Alexis form an allaince Is this Survivor or planned parenthood? Chet comes home 30 pounds lighter and a badly hurt foot from coral So if theres one I quit and two removals by survivor-- JFP is the "I quit" Kathy is one removal by survivor, is Chet a medical removal?
__________________ "If first you don't succeed, destroy all evidence that you tried" Last edited by pawpaw; 02-06-2008 at 11:23 AM. |
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01-28-2008, 12:13 PM
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| Boot Order - Speculation Starting with SURVIVORFEVER's spoil sheet: Fairplay: Short Timer Mary: Early Boot - Episode 2 Chet: Out Pre-Jury Kathleen: Out Pre-Merge Tracy: Out Pre-Merge Yau-Man: Out Pre-Merge Cirie: ? Joel: ? Jonathan: ? Mikey B: ? Eliza: First Juror Jason: Early-Mid Jury? Erik: Makes Jury? Ami: Mid-Game James: Makes Jury Ozzy: Mid-Jury Alexis: Mid-Jury to Late Game? Amanda: Mid-Jury to Late Game Parvati: Mid-Jury to Late Game Natalie: Late Game? If this is the primary spoiler list we use, adding information from others spoil sheets with cred only when it doesn't disagree with Fever … Then: E1 - Jon (Quits) E2 - Mary/Kathleen (Removed) E3 - Tracy E4 - Yau E5 - Jonathon/Michael (Removed, Injury) E6 - Chet E7 - Recap Show E8 - Eliza, Jury Begins at 12, Tribes move to a single camp but remain unmerged. E9 - Ami E10 - Merge - Joel/Erik (Double Elimination) E11 - Jason E12 - Ozzie E13 - James E14 - Final 5 - Pavrati, Amanda, Natalie, Alexis, Cirie Here's the details: E1 - The Faves win RC1 and get fire/useful gear (smoke in pics at Faves’ camp). The Faves have some advantage having played the game before and knowing what to expect. But the LA Recruits rally and win the IC1. Jon quits, maybe before Day 3. Pawpaw raises the idea that Jon’s rant/meltdown is extra funny and idiotic given that Pavrati was actually the target. E2 - The Faves win IC2. The Recruits have several weak players; Mary, Kathleen and Tracy … but decide to rid themselves of a high-maintenance poser and/or socially inept - Mary. This kill is led my Michael who spares no punches in calling Mary out. I believe this is the disturbing episode where Kathleen's mental issues arise and she is removed from the game by the producers after trying to cut off her fingers with a machete. I thought it would take longer for Kathy to wig out, but the trouble is that the Producers must have intended three double eliminations to get from 20 down to 5 to start E14 (discussed below). I also like Kathy wigging in E2, because it helps explain Mary getting voted out first. E3 - The Recruits are exhausted mentally and physically and lose the IC … voting off Tracy. Michael again is brutally frank at the TC and targets his judgment and wrath on Tracy. I prefer slightly Tracy before Yau, because Yau gets exiled and that gives him slightly more longevity than any we have on Tracey. E4 - The Recruits try to comeback. The first 9 days have bonded the group and the remaining seven come together winning IC4. The Faves cut Yau loose. The flight is NOT back home but to Guam, where the Early Boots are housed. Keeping them for three-four weeks on Palau would have invited an observation. E5 - Chet has by now cut his foot badly on coral. The Recruits are really struggling with the physical/mental side of the game - shelter, water and food and sanity. Joel steps up his leadership and tries to rally the Recruits again. Michael is injured at the either the RC or IC and has to be removed from the game. I believe this for several reasons. Even if Michael is a difficult guy socially (which can be read in Probst TC comments about Michael) it's hard to see the Recruits eliminating a strong male this early by choice. But Michael is universally a pre-jury boot. Michael, in his interviews comes off like a typical LA actor/narcissist and maybe an outright asshole. If this is so, then Chet is the likely injury and second forced removal. Kathleen was removed due to mental illness. Chet, according to Fever “asks to be voted out” due to his cut foot injury. This suggests that Chet is NOT the second removal from the game … but fits early rumor that injured players (Amanda and Chet?) keep playing through injury. Michael’s removal E4/5 works well for allowing the Faves to vote out Jonathon pre-merge. They manage to win the IC. This is the most difficult pre-merge episode to figure out. I'm assuming the Faves boot the second favorite here to give Chet as much time as I can to lose weight before being eliminated pre-merge, E6. I discount the Chet loses 30 pounds spoil for several reasons … all known major spoils can’t be reconciled, someone is wrong. Chet maybe weighs 160-170 going in. No doubt Chet loses some weight and is thinner upon return home. But to lose 30, unless he’s got dysentery, means he’s in the end game, which Fever rules out. To me this suggests that the Recruits really struggle with shelter, fire, water and food. The various spoil lists (Fever, TDT, Danieubleu and 4Kingdoms) do not agree. I favor Fever over all others as the most reliable and conservative. But this means that either E5 or E6 we have to kill off Jonathan or Cirie, as Fever has Pavrati making the merge. Killing Cirie or Jonathon pre-merge also matches Coby's spoil that more than one popular Fave goes early (in addition to Yau). I don't think Coby would consider Pavrati as a favorite. As much as I know this will upset people the greater evidence if you give preference to Fever is, pardon the heresy, Jonathon, especially given that Eliza, his ally, is the 1st Juror. E6 - This is the Chet elimination, possibly by request at TC. E7 - Recap show To understand the second half of the season we first have to spend some time considering game design. A second post next explains Game Design. E8 – So I’m assuming a game design of Jury 11, a merge at 10, a Final 5 to begin Episode 14, and the double elimination episode early after the merge. So Eliza goes here and becomes the first juror. E9 – To get Natalie and Alexis to the family visit and to not push the double elimination into the end game suggests a Fave goes here but doesn't require it - Ami, Cirie, Ozzie, Amanda, Pavrati, or James. Ami – She doesn’t log onto myspace until the last few days before the end. This doesn’t require her to be safe here but it doesn’t favor her elimination this early. Her Fever spoil is “mid-game” and this is the mid-game. Cirie – Her Fever spoil is “?” so she can go anytime after Eliza. James - His Fever spoil is “makes jury” so she can go anytime after Eliza. Ozzie – His spoil is “mid-jury” – The 2nd Juror isn’t “mid-jury” so he’s safe. Amanda/Pavrati – Fever has both as “mid-jury to late game” which suggests something better than Ozzie. Its pretty hard to get Ami out “mid-game” if we don’t do it here. Its not my strongest inclination but this boot list assumes Fever is correct. Ami goes here. E10 – We merge here at 10 and do a double elimination – I’m assuming a male Recruit Pagonging in the early post-merge. The Recruits are Natalie, Alexis, Joel, Jason and Erik and the Faves are Cirie, Ozzie, Amanda, Pavrati, James. Fever's spoil list suggests the next boots are a pagonging of the Recruit males - Erik, Joel and Jason. This is a great time for the fake HII to get played, if this does as rumored occur. I’m leaning towards a single HII in this season and that whoever finds it (Cirie/Ami) replaces it with a fake HII. Assuming the Fans will want to send the Recruit’s dominate male to Exile to weaken him in comps that would point to Joel … especially if Ami/Cirie and perhaps others know there’s no real HII there for him to find. I’m making this a double Pagonging of Joel and Erik. E11 - Starts with 8 - Family Visit (China was at 6 left, E11, but since we're speculating E14 begins with 5 not 4 like China, and you don't want the family episode too late, E11 works well). Alexis and Natalie make it at least to this TC. The male Recruit pagonging continues – good bye Jason. E12- Starts with 7 – It looks like at this point the women take over and kill the remaining men. Its either James or Ozzie, since Ozzie's socially more vulnerable I'll go with him first. This is also about as late as could be called “mid-jury” for Ozzie. E13 - Starts with 6 - Lets kill off who's ever left between Ozzie and James here. That would be James. E14 - Starts with 5, a Final 3 face a jury of 11 - The Final 5 is Natalie, Alexis, Amanda, Pavrati, Cirie Cheers, 7o62x39 (S1 Sucks, Ellipsiiis, Acme Brain Trust) Last edited by 7o62x39; 01-29-2008 at 07:02 AM. Reason: typo |
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01-28-2008, 12:16 PM
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| S16 Game Design In order to contruct a complete boot order from spoils you pretty much have to think a lot about Gamne Design, here's some thoughts: Begin with the number of Jurors and when the merge happens and under what conditions. All assuming a Final 3 before the Jury: Option 1 - The Jury of 11 but the tribes are not merged (meaning we move to Individual Immunity, not when all players are at a single camp) until 10 left. Option 2 - The Jury 11 with a merge at 12 left. Option 3 - The Jury of 9 and Merge at 10 left. Therefore, I believe that Episode 8 the tribes are moved to a single location but remain unmerged for the next two TC cycles. If you accept Fever, that Eliza is the 1st juror, then, Occam eliminates Option 2 which requires a lot of complexity to resolve given a Eliza boot and a Fave majority at 12 remaining. A jury of 11 is preferred because it dilutes any possible pre-show deals among Faves. It also precludes a 3-3-3 and makes a tie among two less likely than a jury of 9. Option 3, assuming Fever is correct, means Jonathon, Cirie, Joel and Michael all have to be pre-merge/non-jury boots. Therefore, Option 1 is preferred. Option 1 Jury of 11, with a Merge at 10 - also works well by having the tribes come together in a single camp for 6 days – 2 episodes – as a device to break Pagonging and the naturally strong tribal identity that this season’s structure creates. Pre-merge swapping is complicated because is breaks down the Fan v Faves story-arch too early. We also must solve the game design given 13 elimination episodes and 20 original players. Assuming the intent was a Final 5 at the start of Episode 14 (and 3 before a jury of 9/11, I prefer 11), then you need three double eliminations before Episode 14 (which is also a double elimination), assuming one of the 14 episodes is the recap show. 20 is too many people to follow, so I expect a heavy culling by design early. I would think that at least one of these requisite planned double eliminations should be used as part of the “twists” designed to thwart post-merge pagongings and/or stress alliances at the merge. In many past seasons, pre-merge swapping was used to accomplish this. However, since the story of S16 is – Fan v Faves – pre-merge swapping to break hard bondings at the merge is not ideal. With the first removal of Kathleen, I speculate that the Producers chose to remove a double eliminations. After the second “injury” removal, the Producers to eliminate a second double elimination. Lastly, we have to address where to place the remaining double elimination episode: Option 1 – Pre-Jury, before Episode 7 – We’re running out of space to have any more eliminations is these early episodes. It’s becoming tortured to make a double elimination pre-jury. Option 2 – Post-Jury Pre-merge - Episodes 8/9 – This makes some sense, but it’s not ideal. You either have to eliminate 3 in two episodes and then merge with odd numbers eliminating a 5-5 possibility or you must have only one 3-day episode between the start of the jury and the merge … which weakens the breaking of alliances. Option 3 – Post Merge, after Episode 8/9 – This makes the most sense as it can be done in three ways all of which contribute to stressing alliances and countering the dreaded mid-game Pagonging. Version 1 – Bring the merged group to TC and then surprise them with an unannounced second TC. The advantage is there is no time for the Majority to coordinate its targeting Version 2 – At episode 8 or 9 – There are two TCs – Each tribe competes among themselves foe an II – then there is a merge at the TC where all vote for one Fave and one Recruit. This would really stress alliances as it would force targeting in both the majority and minority at the merge. You need a way to determine which group gets voted on first. Version 3 – Announce the double elimination TC – Just compress the Pagonging if its going to happen and allow the minority to get to 2 ASAP so that the stressing of the merge majority can happen one Episode earlier. There is not really strong evidence to prefer one version to the others … so its just a guess … but it does look like we get a male Recruit Pagonging and then a female dominated end game. Version 2 offers the most fun, but Occam does not favor it. So lets assume Version 1. Cheers 7 |
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02-01-2008, 01:08 PM
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| Day 2, Eliza begins working on Cirie to break up the Ozzy,Amanda,Parvati,James alliance. They want to dump Parvati but keep Ozzy SEX ON SURVIVOR Jeff Probst confirms on day 2 one of the showmance couples--Ozzy/Amanda, Jason/Alexis or Parvati/James goes to the beach and does the wild thing--not knowing the cameraman follows and tapes it all--acourse all we will get is moans and groans and blurr's. JeffProbst comfirms theres an Idol blunder WORST than James last year. Jeff states there is a record # of TC blindsides this year. 2 Idols on the first episode but have to be played that TC--acourse it doesn't matter as JFP quits
__________________ "If first you don't succeed, destroy all evidence that you tried" Last edited by pawpaw; 02-06-2008 at 11:25 AM. |
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02-02-2008, 10:39 AM
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| Interesting stuff from Jeff Probst interview , this season is kinda a "mirror" season. What that means is the Fan's were cast based on how they matched the favorites--who they liked and how they played. Example: Jason boast he loves Ozzy and can match Ozzy in swimming and tree climbing. Joel loves James and is quite too but can't wait to go one on one with James So who's the fan JFP, the next Ami,ect................. Jeff also states the fans want a fan winner and the favorites a favorite winner--will people put aside past conflicts to achive this?
__________________ "If first you don't succeed, destroy all evidence that you tried" Last edited by pawpaw; 02-02-2008 at 10:47 AM. |
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02-06-2008, 11:28 AM
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| Is this the idol? see the string around the neck hanging to the post.
__________________ "If first you don't succeed, destroy all evidence that you tried" Last edited by pawpaw; 02-06-2008 at 11:30 AM. |
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02-23-2008, 08:02 PM
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| This is close, but no one said that Yau would be 3. Quote:
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